2019 Oscar Predictions

The only preface I have for these predictions is that the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should be ashamed that First Man wasn’t nominated across the board. I’m excited for these Oscars otherwise, because Best Picture could legitimately go to four or five films, and a lot of the other major categories could have surprises as well. The Academy is also clearly struggling to put together a show (no host, back peddling on announcements), so in case they need a producer for next year, just know that I am available.

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Will Win: Green Book
Should Win: Black Panther
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
If I picked my favorite of the year: Damien Chazelle, First Man

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
If I picked my favorite of the year: Ryan Gosling, First Man

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Should Win: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
If I picked my favorite of the year: Helena Howard, Madeline’s Madeline

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
If I picked my favorite of the year: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
If I picked my favorite of the year: Rachel McAdams, Game Night

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: First Reformed
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Reformed

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: The Favourite
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: First Man
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: First Man
Should Win: First Man
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
If I picked my favorite of the year: First Man

2018 Oscar Predictions

It's no fun watching the Oscars when you know, or have a pretty good idea, of what'll win. This year, it's a different story. There is no clear frontrunner for Best Picture. There are a handful of films that have a legitimate shot at winning the big prize - including The Shape of Water, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, Dunkirk, and Lady Bird. Let's just be thankful that Paul Thomas Anderson is in presence - and that Kobe Bryant will (likely) be an Academy Award winner.

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread
If I picked my favorite of the year: Phantom Thread

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
If I picked my favorite of the year: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
If I picked my favorite of the year: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Francis McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Marogt Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Will Win: Francis McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Francis McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
If I picked my favorite of the year: Haley Lu Richardson, Columbus

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
If I picked my favorite of the year: Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should Win: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
If I picked my favorite of the year: Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Get Out
Should Win: Get Out
If I picked my favorite of the year: Phantom Thread

Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
If I picked my favorite of the year: Call Me by Your Name

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
If I picked my favorite of the year: A Ghost Story

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
If I picked my favorite of the year: Dunkirk

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
If I picked my favorite of the year: Phantom Thread

Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
If I picked my favorite of the year: Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread
If I picked my favorite of the year: A Ghost Story

2016 Oscar Predictions

I called the Oscars "unpredictable" last year, but it's clear that I spoke too soon. This year is completely wide open, as far as Best Picture is concerned. It's a race between The Revenant, The Big Short and Spotlight. These films each won the major guild prizes - DGA (The Revenant), PGA (The Big Short) and SAG (Spotlight). Is Alejandro González Iñárritu really winning back to back Best Director/Best Picture prizes? If nothing else, let's be thankful that this is finally Leonardo DiCaprio's year!

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
If I picked my favorite of the year: It Follows

Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
If I picked my favorite of the year: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
If I picked my favorite of the year: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
If I picked my favorite of the year: Maika Monroe, It Follows

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
If I picked my favorite of the year: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should Win: Rooney Mara, Carol
If I picked my favorite of the year: Rooney Mara, Carol

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Inside Out
If I picked my favorite of the year: It Follows

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Carol
If I picked my favorite of the year: Carol

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Carol
If I picked my favorite of the year: Carol

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
If I picked my favorite of the year: Mad Max: Fury Road

Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia
Mustang, France
Son of Saul, Hungary
Theeb, Jordan
A War, Denmark

Will Win: Son of Saul
Should Win: Theeb
If I picked my favorite of the year: Taxi

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Bridge of Spies
If I picked my favorite of the year: Carol

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Carol
If I picked my favorite of the year: Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
If I picked my favorite of the year: The Revenant

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
If I picked my favorite of the year: Mad Max: Fury Road

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
If I picked my favorite of the year Mad Max: Fury Road

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
If I picked my favorite of the year: The Revenant

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Carol
If I picked my favorite of the year: It Follows

“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
"Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre

Will Win: “Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
Should Win: “Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
If I picked my favorite of the year: "Grip," Creed

2015 Oscar Predictions

This is a fantastic awards season for many reasons. The Oscars, this year, seem as unpredictable as ever. It's usually incredibly easy figuring out the winners and it's not a lot of fun watching a three-hour long ceremony when you know all the winners. There a lot of close races this year, but what's also noteworthy is that, this year, more than any other year, the Oscars may be spreading the wealth. The eight nominees will all probably pick up at least one award a piece, and that, in itself, is quite exciting. The following are my predictions of the winners. I have included a "Will Win" and "Should Win" note, as well as my personal favorite of the year.

American Sniper
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Boyhood
If I picked my favorite of the year: Boyhood

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tydlum, The Imitation Game

Will Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
If I picked my favorite of the year: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
If I picked my favorite of the year: Joaquin Phoenix, The Immigrant

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
If I picked my favorite of the year: Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Rufallo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
If I picked my favorite of the year: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
If I picked my favorite of the year: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Boyhood
If I picked my favorite of the year: Boyhood

American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Will Win: The Imitation Game
Should Win: Inherent Vice
If I picked my favorite of the year: Gone Girl

American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Boyhood
If I picked my favorite of the year: Boyhood

Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Will Win: Birdman
Should Win: Birdman
If I picked my favorite of the year: The Immigrant

Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

Will Win: Ida
Should Win: Ida
If I picked my favorite of the year: Under the Skin

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
If I picked my favorite of the year: The Immigrant

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Inherent Vice
If I picked my favorite of the year: The Immigrant

Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Foxcatcher
If I picked my favorite of the year: Birdman

American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

Will Win: American Sniper
Should Win: Interstellar
If I picked my favorite of the year: Under the Skin

American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Will Win: American Sniper
Should Win: Interstellar
If I picked my favorite of the year: Under the Skin

American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Will Win: American Sniper
Should Win: Interstellar
If I picked my favorite of the year: Under the Skin

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Should Win: Interstellar
If I picked my favorite of the year: The Immigrant

"Everything is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie
"Glory" from Selma
"Grateful" from Beyond the Lights
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell... I'll Be Me
"Lost Stars" from Begin Again

Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Should Win: "Glory" from Selma
If I picked my favorite of the year: "Split the Difference" from Boyhood